Posted 09-10-2004 at 04:56:14
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Ivan was for a time a Category 5 hurricane Thursday morning, but the hurricane is undergoing internal changes that will cause it to go through cycles of strengthening and weakening. This process is called eye wall replacement and is common with all very strong hurricanes. During this process, the hurricane's eye contracts, causing a second eye wall to form around the smaller eye wall nearer the center. Once the second and larger eye wall forms, the inner eye wall falls apart and pressures within the hurricane rise. The larger second eye wall then slowly contracts and, once again, the pressure falls. Each time the pressure rises, the wind field around the hurricane decreases somewhat. Each time the pressure falls, the wind field around the hurricane tightens and usually increases. This process can take anywhere from 12 to 24 hours. As Ivan closes in on Jamaica, the wind field around the hurricane will start to interact with the mountains of the island. This could cause Ivan to weaken somewhat. But, historically, most strong hurricanes that have interacted with the 1000 to 7000 foot mountains of Jamaica have re-strengthened. The hurricane will cause heavy rainfall totalling 5.00-10.00 inches, leading to life-threatening mudslides and flooding over the island during Friday and Friday night into Saturday. Large battering waves and a storm surge of 5-10 feet will pummel coastal areas of Jamaica Friday and Friday night. After leaving Jamaica, Ivan will take aim at Cuba. Current computer forecasts diverge considerably once Ivan moves toward Cuba, then north of Cuba. AccuWeather.com meteorologists believe Ivan will pass just west of Key West Monday afternoon, then track very close or make landfall along the west or southwest coast of Florida Monday night. However, a slight change in the track of this hurricane caused by its encounter with Cuba and with upper-level steering currents could easily result in a course toward the Florida Panhandle or even toward the southeast coast of Florida. Therefore, there is a great deal of uncertainty in the track of Ivan once it moves north of Cuba. Anyone with interests in the northern or northwestern Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, especially anyone in Florida, should closely monitor the movement of Ivan.
Posted 09-10-2004 at 12:11:58
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thanks for the info, i find them very interesting and how and why they develope and become so strong, it is a terrible burden on the folks that live in these areas and like the people that live in tornado afflicted areas, i can only pray for their safety it is too bad they couldn,t come up with something to help control or lessen their strength, i would think many have studied ways to try and do this but it would seem so far they have not found anything.the insurance industry i belive was involved in finding something to help (cloud seeding) with hail damage to crops, it,s too bad they couldn,t do the same here, i feel so bad for these folks having to live through these one after another.